Author: Lasha Gamjashvili
The European Parliament’s recent elections have demonstrated a significant shift to the right, with a rise in eurosceptic nationalists and a slight decrease in mainstream parties. The rightward shift in the European Parliament could pose challenges to various policy objectives and initiatives, potentially impacting the EU’s ability to address pressing issues such as climate change, defense cooperation, the disastrous war in Ukraine, the enlargement of the EU, trade agreements, and internal reform. For a candidate state like Georgia, it is crucial to understand- “How does the recent rightward shift in the European Parliament influence the EU’s stance on Georgia’s democratic struggles?”
Adherence to European Principles
In Georgia, the ongoing struggle for democracy has reached a pivotal juncture, with the European Union emerging as a beacon of hope for tens of thousands of citizens rallying against the encroaching authoritarianism of the Georgian Dream government. The recent enactment of a Russian-style “foreign agents” law has instilled widespread apprehension among Georgians, who perceive it as a direct threat to their country’s EU candidacy status and trajectory of democratic governance. The adoption of the “foreign agents” law by the Georgian Dream government mirrors the suppressive tactics employed by the Kremlin to quash dissent in Russia. This legislation mandates that organizations and individuals receiving substantial funding from abroad disclose themselves as entities serving foreign interests. The expansive and nebulous nature of the law, coupled with its onerous financial reporting requirements, poses a profound threat to freedom of expression and civil society in Georgia.
In response to this assault on democracy, Georgian citizens have mobilized, brandishing the EU flag and echoing the EU anthem as symbols of their allegiance to European values. Over the span of two months, protests have convulsed the nation, with demonstrators fervently demanding the rescission of the “Russian law” and reaffirming their fidelity to the European Union. With approximately 200,000 individuals congregating on Europe Day to voice their opposition to the legislation, it is evident that the EU has transcended a mere political association—it has become a harbinger of optimism for a more promising future.
As Georgia confronts the looming specter of authoritarianism, the EU Parliament elections assume paramount importance. The EU’s response to Georgia’s predicament will serve as a litmus test for its credibility as a champion of democracy and human rights. Historical precedents underscore the efficacy of a resolute and unified stance against illiberal politics, bolstered by credible threats of punitive measures, in countering authoritarian tendencies in Central and Eastern European states. Conversely, ambivalence and reticence to enforce conditionality have only emboldened autocratic regimes. The composition of the European Commission and Parliament will significantly shape the EU’s foreign policy stance. Critical portfolios such as Enlargement and External Action will wield considerable influence in determining the EU’s approach towards candidate states like Georgia. The ascendancy of far-right factions within the EU threatens to undermine efforts to combat authoritarianism, as evidenced by Hungary’s sway over the Commission’s stance. Furthermore, the EU Parliament’s authority to impede accession talks and advocate for sanctions underscores its pivotal role in shaping EU foreign policy.
Despite the fact that the rise of right-wing parties can pose threats now, and bring ever greater problems if this tendency is sustained in the future, there is no reason to panic. The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen claimed victory, seeing her party (European People’s party) receiving the most seats in Parliament (184). Her nomination for a second term at the helm of the European Commission is a much-needed signal of stability. The election results reveal that the center-right (EPP), center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group, and the liberal Renew group continue to be the three largest groupings in Parliament. Major officials will be selected from these dominant parties, and ,former socialist Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa will succeed Charles Michel. Costa is an experienced and well-respected politician and skilled negotiator who can bring together left-wing groups over crucial issues. Moreover, the EU’s strongest advocate for an uncompromising response to Russia, Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is expected to become the first EU foreign policy chief ,meanwhile Metsola is poised to be chosen for a second term as the European Parliament president. These parties and political leaders have extensive experience in cooperating on critical EU issues such as defense and security, immigration, and enlargement. They espouse liberal views and advocate for the expansion of the EU.
The dominant parties can be seen as supporters of Georgia across various critical fields, emphasizing that Georgia should pursue reforms and aspire to become a full member in future. Generally speaking,this stance can reassure the aspirant countries that the major policies will be maintained and we should not expect drastic changes overnight.
The Right-Wing Problem
Yet, the burgeoning influence of right-wing political entities within the EU presents a formidable obstacle to Georgia’s democratic aspirations. It risks legitimizing authoritarian regimes such as the Georgian Dream and impeding the EU’s capacity to decisively address electoral malpractice and human rights violations. Moreover, it imperils the EU’s global reputation as a staunch defender of democratic norms and principles. To elaborate on this topic with greater depth and clarity,the elections have considerably weakened the influence of Renew, the party of French President Emmanuel Macron. Once a major player, it has suffered significant defeats, which were deemed so damaging domestically that Macron called for a snap French parliamentary election the day after the results were announced.
The EU enlargement has regained its status as a top foreign policy priority, especially in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In numerous European capitals, the accession of Western Balkan and Eastern European countries is viewed as crucial for safeguarding the security of the EU and its neighboring regions. According to polls, public support for Ukraine’s EU membership is at its lowest in Hungary, Slovakia, France, and Austria — countries where far-right parties wield significant influence. Parties like the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV), France’s RN, Austria’s Freedom Party (FPO), and Germany’s AfD generally express skepticism towards further EU enlargement and and advocating for stricter controls on immigration from non-EU countries. The success of Le Pen’s party, capturing 31.5% of the vote in France, was complemented by the Freedom Party of Austria achieving over 25% and its counterpart in The Netherlands receiving more than 17%. This wave of nationalist victories led to the resignation of Belgium’s Prime Minister following his party’s defeat. Additionally, Germany’s AfD secured a notable 16% of the vote, surpassing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD, marking one of the SPD’s poorest electoral outcomes.
Undoubtedly, the remarkable success of the radical parties is concerning and may present significant risks in the future. Lastly, it is also worth underscoring It is generally positive when the main political parties of EU member countries support Georgia. However, the Hungarian government’s support for the Georgian Dream and their political alignment could potentially harm Georgia’s prospects and hinder its path towards EU integration.
Conclusion
The recent European Parliament elections signaled a significant shift to the right, highlighted by the rise of eurosceptic nationalist parties and a marginal decline in mainstream political influence. Victories for parties like Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France, alongside affiliated parties in Austria, Germany, Belgium, Hungary, and The Netherlands, underscore a changing political landscape that can pose challenges to Georgia’s aspirations for European integration.These parties’ skepticism towards further EU enlargement and their emphasis on national sovereignty could potentially hinder Georgia’s path towards EU membership.
However, amidst these challenges, there are positive signs within the EU’s political framework. Major parties such as the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the liberal Renew Europe group, remain committed to EU enlargement and are advocating for democratic reforms in candidate countries. Led by figures like Ursula von der Leyen, Metsola and Antonio Costa, these parties play a crucial role in shaping EU policies that impact Georgia’s future.
While the influence of eurosceptic factions within the EU presents a clear threat, it is essential to remain optimistic. The EU’s core parties continue to champion Georgia’s alignment with European values and to support its journey towards full EU membership. As Georgia navigates these complexities, its commitment to democratic principles and alignment with EU standards should remain central to its progress and ultimate integration into the European Union.
