Author: Mariam Macharashvili
Had Russia not attacked Ukraine in February 2022, Volodymyr Zelenskyy would have been up for re-election in the spring of 2024. As such, the Russia-Ukraine war has influenced not only the geopolitical landscape, but also the domestic political environment. With the war having now stretched on for over three years, the issue of holding national elections during wartime has become an increasingly important topic of discussion. Elections are a cornerstone of democracy and the democratization process, but the difficult circumstances faced by a country at war make organizing them extremely difficult. In this blog, we will take a closer look at the risks involved and explore the wider implications of holding elections in Ukraine under such severe conditions.
The issue of conducting elections in Ukraine was recently raised by US President Donald Trump, who criticized Volodymyr Zelenskyy, calling him a “dictator” and arguing that Ukrainian citizens should still have the right to vote, even during the war. While Trump faced criticism for his position, there is some validity to his views, as the US has a history of holding elections during wartime, regardless of whether the conflict was happening on American soil or abroad. Examples include the 1864 Presidential elections during the Civil War and the 1944 Presidential elections during World War II. Despite these elections being held, they still faced significant challenges, among them low voter turnout, divided public opinion, political polarization and security threats. Furthermore, while domestic politics became consumed by electoral campaigns, it led to a lack of strong leadership during the wartime period. Besides the US, other countries in Africa, Asia, and the Western Balkans can also report negative experiences when elections were held during wars. As Thomas Greminger, former Secretary General of the OSCE, emphasized “a certain level of stability and thorough preparation are essential.” Without these, he noted, elections could cause destabilization within the country, rather than strengthening it.
While democracy may be a major argument behind Trump’s rhetoric, there could be another reason why the US President supports elections in Ukraine, and here, it is important to consider Russia’s stance. Russia has also raised “concerns” about the lack of elections in Ukraine. President Putin repeatedly questioned Zelenskyy’s legitimacy following the cancellation of the elections scheduled for 2024. Moscow stated that it is open to negotiating with Zelenskyy but will not agree to a peace deal until a new presidential election is held in Ukraine. A source within the Ukrainian government further confirmed that Putin was using the election issue as an excuse to delay future negotiations. As President Trump now seeks to play a key role and demonstrate his ability to end the Russia-Ukraine war, some believe that holding elections could be part of Trump’s strategy in negotiations with both Russia and Ukraine to make a peace deal more achievable. However, former US ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst warns that using elections as leverage in negotiations would be a mistake.
Trump’s position on this was severely criticized both within Ukraine and by Western allies. European leaders, including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, have defended Zelenskyy, arguing that the need for stability and the continuation of Ukraine’s defense takes precedence over elections. They underline the importance of respecting Ukraine’s constitution, and acknowledge the special circumstances that make holding elections unacceptable during wartime. The international community seems united in its desire to postpone the elections until Ukraine can ensure the right conditions for holding them.
Ukraine’s constitution and legal framework present a barrier to holding elections during wartime. Since Russia’s invasion on February 24, 2022, Ukraine has been under martial law, which suspends certain civil liberties, and changes governance mechanisms. According to Ukraine’s “On the Legal Regime of Martial Law,” elections are explicitly prohibited. Article 19 of this law stipulates that presidential, parliamentary, and local elections cannot be held until martial law is lifted. Even once martial law is lifted, there is a waiting period of six months before elections can be held, further delaying the democratic process. These restrictions are grounded in the need to protect civilians from potential threats during ongoing conflict. Therefore, the legal framework leaves little room for electoral processes until the war concludes.
In addition to the legal framework, public opinion polls in Ukraine show a strong preference for postponing the elections. According to the February 2024 poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), 69% of Ukrainians oppose holding presidential/parliamentary elections during the war. Another survey conducted by the Razumkov Centre in June-July 2024 found that only 22% of the population supported the holding of elections, while 59% were firmly against it. From the surveys, it is clear to see that the overwhelming majority of the population is understandably concerned about the implications of conducting elections during such a volatile period. Citizens are more concerned about the defense of their country and their families than about potential political campaigns and ballots.
One of the most significant arguments against holding elections during wartime revolves around the security risks involved. In a conflict zone, the safety of voters and election staff, and the security of polling stations themselves, are a major concern. Ukraine’s election infrastructure could become a direct target of military attacks, especially in contested areas or near active frontlines. There is also high risk of election-related violence, which may not only hinder the voting process, but also endanger the lives of civilians. Logistical challenges in delivering ballots, organizing transportation, and ensuring the safe counting of votes in an unstable environment must also be considered as factors that can disrupt the electoral process. Communication lines, roads, and transportation networks have been severely damaged by the war, making it difficult to maintain the necessary infrastructure for the proper conduct of elections.
Furthermore, Ukraine is facing a massive displacement crisis. As millions of Ukrainians have left their homes and moved to other countries, ensuring that all citizens can participate in elections becomes an almost impossible task. Also, with large parts of the country still in conflict, many citizens may not have access to polling stations, especially in the war-torn eastern regions. There is no existing system for absentee voting, and the national voter registry has not been updated recently.
Funding the election process presents another important challenge. The Central Election Committee estimated that the presidential elections will cost approximately $196.7 million, while the parliamentary elections will require around $135.9 million. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s 2024 budget forecasts $43.7 billion in revenue but almost double that amount, $82.3 billion, in expenditures, excluding election-related costs. The shortfall is expected to be addressed through international loans and grants. It is important to note that any resources allocated to address the holding of elections will be diverted from the country’s defense efforts.
Another critical factor is the potential for political polarization and manipulation. While Ukrainians are generally united under their national defense, political divisions still exist. Holding elections during a war could exacerbate these divisions, particularly over how the war is being managed and the strategies being used by the leadership. In addition, holding elections in Ukraine serves Russia’s interests by aiming to cause instability, weaken Ukrainian unity, and undermine Zelenskyy’s leadership. In addition, as Orysia Lutsevych, a research fellow at Chatham House, argues, during elections Russia is more likely to interfere in the process, hoping to support a more pro-peace, pro-normalisation candidate who will be more sympathetic to Russian interests.
Despite the challenges analyzed above, if elections were held, they might encourage intense discussion about the management of the war, government actions, and post-war recovery plans. Such debates could divide public opinion even further, possibly resulting in civil protests or confrontation between political groups. Moreover, distrust towards the electoral process could arise if citizens feel that the elections are being held within an insecure environment. If a significant portion of citizens is unable or unwilling to vote, the legitimacy of the election results may be called into question, leading to doubts about the elected government’s mandate and authority.
In conclusion, the idea of holding elections in Ukraine during wartime has been a topic of debate, and was recently raised by US President Donald Trump. While elections are a key part of democracy, conducting them with the Russia-Ukraine war ongoing presents significant challenges, including security risks, legal obstacles, and financial and logistical hurdles. Public opinion polls show that the majority of Ukrainians prioritize national defense, security and stability over tense political campaigns that could further destabilize the country. Moreover, holding elections now could give Russia the opportunity to interfere in the process and push forward a candidate that serves its own interests. Consequently, elections in Ukraine should only be considered under specific conditions—such as during a ceasefire, and with restored infrastructure and improved security.
