Author: David Batashvili

 

The Rondeli Foundation’s Russian Geostrategy Monitor is a monthly brief that tracks Russian geostrategy worldwide employing the framework set in The Structure of Modern Russia’s Foreign Strategy. Russian geostrategic activities are also tracked on the regularly updated interactive Russian Geostrategy Map.

Issue 19 covers Russian geostrategy for the month of July 2024. The numbering and contents of the Outcomes, Goals and Objectives follows The Structure of Modern Russia’s Foreign Strategy framework.

 

Objective 2: Strengthening the Western political forces considered by Moscow to be inimical to the Western-led international order, and the Kremlin’s relationships with such forces

  • WSJ reported on 9 July that according to US intelligence officials the Russian government had launched an effort to influence the outcome of the US presidential election in favor of Donald Trump, although so far the effort had been less in scale than in the 2016 election.
  • On 26 July, the Russian aggressively imperialist popular Telegram channel Rybar, which consistently pushes for the Russian conquest of Ukraine as well as Russia’s geostrategy worldwide, claimed it had “sources” among the authors of Project 2025. Specifically, Rybar spoke of “our sources in the USA, who have directly participated in creating Project 2025.” Rybar also claimed that Donald Trump had disappointed the right-wing circles behind Project 2025 by his unwillingness to fully embrace their agenda.

 

Objective 3: Enhancing internal political instability and polarization within Western states

  • On 23 July, the French police arrested a Russian man apparently working for the Russian FSB security agency and suspected of “intention to organize events likely to cause destabilization during the Olympic Games.”
  • In late July 2024, Russian state-controlled media falsely claimed that the culprit of the Southport stabbing attacks in Britain had been an asylum seeker “called Ali Al-Shakati.” The widely spread fake news was aimed to contribute to the riots taking place in the UK after the attacks.

 

Objective 5: Thwarting policies of the US and its allies in the MENA region

  • On 2 July, Russian deputy foreign minister Bogdanov met with an official Houthi delegation, criticizing the American and British strikes against the Houthis conducted in response to their attacks on the commercial shipping through the Red Sea.
  • On 3 July, Bogdanov held a meeting with Falih Al-Fayyadh, the leader of Iran’s Iraq-based armed groups called the Popular Mobilization Forces, discussing “situation in Iraq and Syria” and “in the zone of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.” The two sides “confirmed the unchanging attitude of Moscow and Baghdad in favor of the further strengthening of coordination of principled approaches toward the problems of achieving security and stability in the Middle East.”

 

Objective 9: Achieving de-sovereignization of Ukraine

  • In the Russo-Ukrainian War during July 2024, the Russian forces continued to gradually push forward at a number of sections of the frontline, most notably toward the city of Toretsk and in the direction of the city of Pokrovsk.
  • CNN revealed on 11 July that earlier in 2024 the US intelligence had discovered Russia’s plans to assassinate the chief executive of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger. Rheinmetall has been producing arms for Ukraine during the full-scale Russian invasion of that country. Moscow also planned to murder other “defense industry executives across Europe who were supporting Ukraine’s war effort” besides Papperger.
  • Intelligence Online reported on 29 July that for several weeks Russia had been sabotaging Ukraine’s railroads through which the Western states are delivering their aid to the country.

 

Objective 10: Achieving decisive influence over Georgia

  • On 9 July, the Russian foreign intelligence service, SVR, accused the US of preparing an “information campaign” against Ivanishvili’s ruling Georgian Dream party in order to remove it from power during the 26 October 2024 Georgian general election through a “color revolution.”
  • On 10 July, Naval News reported the presence of the Russian navy’s support ship in the port of Ochamchire in Georgia’s Russian-occupied Abkhazia region.
  • On 30 July, Bellingcat reported an acceleration of construction, including “over the past several weeks,” at the Ochamchire port in Georgia’s Russian-occupied Abkhazia region, which Moscow intends to use as a naval base for its Black Sea Fleet,

 

Objective 16: Entrenching Russian influence in sub-Saharan Africa

  • Russian sources reported joint operations of Russia’s Wagner Group forces and the Central African Republic troops in the east of the country in June and early July 2024, which reportedly had “liberated considerable territories” from the rebels.
  • On 6 July, Russia’s satellite regimes in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger announced the establishment of the Confederation of Sahel States consisting of these three countries. On 12 July, the Russian foreign ministry formally endorsed establishment of the Confederation, saying it would “have positive impact on the formation of new regional security architecture,” and promising to continue Russian support, including military aid, to the Confederation members.
  • On 25-26 July, joint military operations of Russia and its satellite regime in Mali against the Tuareg fighters in the north of the country resulted in a heavy defeat when their joint force was surrounded and destroyed by the Tuaregs in the area of Tinzaouaten town, near Algerian border.

 

Objective 17: Entrenching Russian influence in the Western hemisphere

  • Following the 28 July presidential election in Venezuela, rigged by the Maduro authoritarian regime, Moscow issued statements saying the opposition had to accept the outcome and congratulate Maduro as the “winner.”

 

Objective 20: Alignment with China

  • On 9 July, Intelligence Online reported that Russia and North Korea had agreed to grant China unlimited right of transit through their borderline Tumen River, thus giving Beijing direct access to the Sea of Japan.
  • Reuters reported on 14 July that according to the Chinese media, Russia and China had recently conducted a joint naval patrol in the Western and Northern Pacific Ocean.
  • On 25 July, Russian and Chinese strategic bombers, escorted by fighters, conducted joint patrols near Alaska over the North Pacific Ocean and the Bering and Chukchi Seas.

 

Objective 21: Alignment with Iran

  • On 1 July, Intelligence Online reported that Iran’s space program was enjoying “sudden progress” as a consequence of “massive help from Russia,” causing concern in the West.

 

Objective 22: Developing partnerships with South Asian regional powers

  • On 8-9 July, Russia and India agreed to boost their trade during the Indian Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Moscow, setting a bilateral trade target of $100 billion by 2030.