Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s most influential politician and the Honorary Chairman of the Georgian Dream Party, has openly turned against the West, especially in the last two years, following on from the start of Russia’s full-scale military aggression in Ukraine. According to the “conspiracy theory” voiced by Ivanishvili, the Global War Party is fighting against him and is pressuring him to open a “second front” against Russia and drag Georgia into the war. According to Ivanishvili and his supporters, this is why he is being punished, being one of many against whom the West has imposed sanctions.
After coming to power in 2012, Ivanishvili maintained something of a balance between the West and Russia, but with the war in Ukraine, the space for such political maneuvering has become limited. Ivanishvili seems to believe that no matter how the war in Ukraine ends, the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, will have enough leverage to pressure Georgia. Given the prospect of such a development, Ivanishvili decided to confront Georgia’s partners in the West, who are actually at war with Russia, and “sort out” relations with Russia himself, and/or find new partners (e.g. China) to realign the balance.
Despite the Ivanishvili/Georgian Dream government’s formal declaration of a pro-Western course, it is clear that a schism has appeared in the alliance between Georgia and the West, a fact openly spoken about in the West. The adoption of the so-called law on “foreign agents” by the Georgian Dream government, frequent anti-Western rhetoric, and the actions of official Tbilisi have already provoked a reaction from Western countries, namely:
• On June 6, the US State Department imposed visa restrictions on dozens of individuals responsible for or being complicit in the passage of the “Russian Law.”
• On June 27, the European Union approved the conclusion of the European Council, which expresses “serious concern” over recent developments in Georgia, de facto leading to a halt to the EU accession process.
• On July 5, the US Department of Defense announced the indefinite postponement of the “Noble Partner” military exercise which was planned in Georgia.
• On July 9, the Ambassador of the European Union to Georgia, Pawel Herczynski, said: “Georgia’s EU accession process has been suspended, the European Union has frozen EUR 30 million in aid to Georgia, and additional measures are being considered which will be implemented in case of further deterioration of the situation in the country.”
• On July 10, the German Ambassador to Georgia, Peter Fischer, stated that due to the recent anti-Western decisions of Georgian Dream, Germany had decided to stop any new financial commitments to Georgia. On July 11, the French Ambassador to Georgia, Sheraz Ghasri, announced France’s suspension of aid to Georgia.
• For the first time since the 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration, the NATO Washington Summit Declaration, which the Heads of State and Government of the North Atlantic Alliance adopted on July 10, does not contain the wording that “Georgia will become a member of the Alliance, and the Membership Action Plan (MAP) will be an integral part of the accession process.”
It seems that these are only the first steps on the part of the West, and we should expect new decisions in this direction which will further aggravate the gap in relations between Georgia and the West.
Despite the fact that, in their speeches, Georgian Dream leaders declare 2030 as the target year for joining the European Union, their actions and decisions show that the process of revision of the country’s foreign policy course is already underway, and that talk about joining the European Union is only a temporary maneuver, given that at this stage the majority of the population, including a part of Georgian Dream voters, also support joining the European Union.
Georgian Dream needs a strong argument to “legitimize” the change in foreign policy course. The decision to abandon a pro-Western foreign policy line in exchange for promises to restore territorial integrity can be used as one such “ironclad” argument. “The false dilemma, the West, or the restoration of territorial integrity,” may soon be openly presented to Georgian society. Interestingly, this issue is already being discussed in the occupied regions, where they speak of a possible deal between Moscow and Tbilisi, placing special emphasis on the confederative model of interstate union as one of the possible options for restoring Georgia’s territorial integrity.
What does Ivanishvili/Georgian Dream “Believe”
During his political career, Ivanishvili has consistantly assured us that territorial integrity can be restored peacefully, and that what is happening in this direction is not Russia’s fault, but stems from the incorrect policies of Georgia’s previous governments. In 2013, his first year in power, Ivanishvili overtly stated that he does not believe that Russia’s strategy is to conquer and occupy the territories of neighboring countries: “I do not think and cannot believe that Russia’s strategy is to conquer and occupy the territories of neighboring countries, I do not believe it. I am not planning to analyze now what has happened and developed. There were too many misunderstandings on both sides. And this is not in line with Russia’s strategy.”
Ivanishvili and the Georgian Dream leaders consider Mikheil Saakashvili and the United National Movement as the initiators of the 2008 Russian-Georgian war and, in recent speeches, name the West as the instigator. They believe that as a result of the Georgian Dream’s pragmatic policy, “strategic patience” and non-provocative policy towards Moscow, it will be possible to restore territorial integrity peacefully. During the 12 years of Georgian Dream’s rule, there has been no progress in this regard. On the contrary, Russia’s influence in the occupied regions is increasing. However, despite this, recent processes over the past few months can lead one to believe that Ivanishvili is preparing to make a “decisive step” towards the restoration of territorial integrity, for which he believes that the Western vector in foreign policy should be reconsidered, because only under this condition can Russia make concessions and help Tbilisi to restore its territorial integrity.
Officials are not saying this openly, but there are many hints that “sacrifices” must be made in order to restore territorial integrity. One such “sacrifice” could be the pro-Western foreign policy vector, which, according to Georgian Dream, has not brought the country any real results; on the contrary, that the voicing of empty promises on joining Euro-Atlantic organizations has put the country in front of an “open door” and made it a subject of Russian aggression.
What Was Said, by Whom and When
The issue of restoring Georgia’s territorial integrity has always been part of the speeches and election programs of political leaders. However, the government has recently focused on two issues: despite the growing confrontation with the West, Georgian Dream promises EU membership in 2030, and indicates that a united Georgia (along with Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region) will join the EU.
Ivanishvili recently hinted at restoring territorial integrity during his speech at the “public gathering” on April 29: “I promise that we will overcome all obstacles, strengthen our sovereignty, maintain peace, strengthen Georgia’s economy and become a member of the European Union in 2030… Free, independent and sovereign Georgia, a member of the European Union, a united Georgia – this is our Georgian dream, which we will definitely achieve together.”
His speech came in parallel to the adoption of the so-called “Russian law” being underway in Parliament, when warnings from the West were being increasingly heard demanding the Georgian government withdraw the bill, otherwise the move could lead to sanctions and suspension of the EU accession process. Against this backdrop, on May 24, a Georgian Dream MP, Savalan Mirzoev, made his sharpest statement to date, saying that the government had entered a decisive phase. “I had the opportunity to go to America many times as a member of parliament, I wouldn’t have had a visa problem, but I never wanted to see America. Why? Because I have other desires; I want to travel somewhere else, and this ‘elsewhere’ is our Abkhazia and Samachablo (Although the territory is officially referred to as Tskhinvali region by Georgian authorities, the term has become dominant among the Georgian public). Yes, I prefer walking in the streets of Sokhumi than walking in Manhattan….. As an Azerbaijanian, born and raised in Georgia, I really want to see the Ilori Church in Abkhazia, I know from photos and stories that it is wonderful, much more so than seen in photos. Well, we will tolerate, we will bear the sanctions, threats… for Abkhazia, for Samachablo, for Georgia!” – he said.
Georgia’s Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze repeated Ivanishvili’s pathos during his speech on the Independence Day event on May 26: “Our ‘promised land’ and our Georgian dream is to live in a united and strong Georgia, together with our Abkhaz and Ossetian brothers and sisters in 2030, on the 40th anniversary of the restoration of Georgia’s independence. A strong and united Georgia must become a full member of the European family in 2030.”
Kobakhidze made a similar statement on June 21 in Berlin, during his speech at the solemn reception dedicated to Georgia’s Independence Day: “We have a policy of strategic patience, through which we will ultimately accomplish the dream of Georgia, the dream of Georgians, and Georgia will be a united and whole state.”
On June 29, Kobakhidze brought up the topic again during his annual report in Parliament: “We have two main national tasks – to finally overcome poverty in our country and to make our country united… I believe that in 2030, we will be living in a united Georgia and we will join the European Union as a full member together with our Abkhaz and Ossetian brothers and sisters.” The Prime Minister named the resolution of the Russian-Georgian conflict and the peaceful restoration of Georgia’s territorial integrity as among the main priorities of Georgia’s foreign policy.
In the context of the restoration of territorial integrity, an interesting dialogue was recorded between Ivanishvili-related businessman Davit Khidasheli and the First Deputy Speaker of the Parliament (at the same time the Chairman of the Temporary Parliamentary Commission on Restoration of Territorial Integrity) Gia Volski. The recording of the meeting, which took place on March 5, in Melograno cafe located next to the Parliament of Georgia in Tbilisi, was released on March 7, in which Khidasheli talks about the restoration of relations with the occupied territories. He mentions the confederation in light of the occupied regions. Confederation is a word which is not used in Georgia, although the confederation issue is being discussed in the Russian media and in the occupied regions within the theme of restorating Georgia’s territorial integrity.
Russia’s Response, and Talks about the Confederation
Russia responded to the statements made in Georgia, and there have been an increasing number of articles published on the issue of confederation in Russian media, it being among the possible options for restoring the territorial integrity of Georgia.
On May 27, the Russian Federation Council commented on Kobakhidze’s statement. The Deputy Chairman of the International Affairs Committee, Vladimir Dzhabarov, said that Georgia itself is to blame for the loss of Abkhazia and “South Ossetia.” According to the Head of the Federation Council Committee on International Relations, Grigory Karasin, now, the most important thing for Kobakhidze is to adopt the “Russian law,” and the rest is just consideration. He called Georgia’s reunification “reasoning from evil.”
In a June 18 interview to the Komsomolskaya Pravda Russian newspaper, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Mikhail Galuzin, who oversees relations with the post-Soviet countries, including the occupied regions, noted that the Georgian government “aims to return Abkhazia and South Ossetia peacefully,” instead of which he called on Georgia to recognize the “independence” of the Russian-occupied regions of Abkhazia and Tskhinvali.
On July 10, in an interview with the Moscow Speaking radio station, the First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Relations with Compatriots, Konstantin Zatulin, spoke about the European Union’s decision of July 27. According to him, “we will not refuse to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia in order to support the anti-Western forces in Georgia. We recognized these countries. We are developing relations with them, we are in a military alliance with them.”
In Russia, only relatively second-rank figures are talking about this issue, whose statements, in terms of restoring territorial integrity, cannot be promising for Georgian Dream. Experts, however, speak more openly about the issue of confederation.
On June 27, the Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily newspaper published an article by Vladimir Novikov, the Head of the Caucasus Department of the Institute of CIS Countries, about Russian-Abkhazian relations. The article discusses “the possibility of reconciliation between Sokhumi and Tbilisi.” According to the author, “against the background of Georgia’s alleged turn towards Russia, talk has emerged that Moscow could regulate relations with Tbilisi at the expense of creating a Georgian-Abkhazian confederation. The idea was promoted in April and May by some Russian Telegram channels known for their ultra-nationalist positions. As per the most radical views published on these channels, Georgia will become a member of the Eurasian Economic Union and join the ‘New Russian Empire.’ Against this background, Abkhazia should be sacrificed for the Georgian-Russian rapprochement.” The author asks to what extent the Georgian authorities understand the level of resistance they will encounter in Abkhaz society by negotiating with Russia on the creation of a confederation.
On June 10, 2024, EADaily published an article by Albert Akopyan (Urumov): “One Georgian and two ‘half-Georgians!’ The key to the problem of Georgia, Abkhazia and the Republic of South Ossetia.” The article discusses the idea of two confederations against the background of the rapprochement of the Georgian Dream government with Russia: one within an independent Abkhazia, the other within an independent South Ossetia, which implies the constitutional transformation of each of these states into a bi-communal confederation (Abkhazian-Georgian and Ossetian-Georgian): The Confederation of Apsny-Abkhazia (CAA) and Confederation of Alania-Samachablo (CAS). The author believes this should be preceded by their recognition by Tbilisi. As per the author’s assessment, only a confederative form will allow any number of Georgian refugees to return to Abkhazia without creating threats to the Abkhaz nation. Akopyan also suggests what the confederation maps might look like.
What Are They Afraid of in the Occupied Regions?
Against the backdrop of the improvement of Georgian-Russian relations and the sharp deterioration of relations between Tbilisi and the West, doubts have arisen in the occupied regions as to whether a compromise might be reached between Moscow and Tbilisi to the detriment of their interests. Doubts about Russia’s credibility arose in particular following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, when Russia did not provide adequate assistance to its strategic ally Armenia, which was at war with Azerbaijan. In this regard, they are especially careful in Abkhazia, where, unlike the Tskhinvali region, they see their future as an “independent Abkhazian state.”
Sokhumi and Tskhinvali responded immediately to Kobakhidze’s May 26 statement. The de facto Foreign Ministries of occupied Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region issued standard statements. Beyond the statements, the occupied regions are particularly concerned about the confederation idea, which Abkhazian and Ossetian journalists and experts are actively discussing on social media. Representatives of the de facto governments avoid openly discussing the topic, with the exception of Abkhazia’s de facto Security Council Secretary, Sergey Shamba (appointed as de facto Minister of Foreign Affairs on August 6), who, on May 23, during the Sokhumi-Moscow video bridge – ‘Abkhazia and Russia in the context of new geopolitical realities,’ expressed his opinion on the creation of a confederation with the participation of Georgia and occupied Abkhazia. According to Shamba, “experts conclude that Georgia is changing its foreign policy vector from the West to the East, that there are plans to establish some kind of confederative relations, that in the future Russia may refuse to recognize the independence of Abkhazia. The opinion that Russia allegedly wants to create a Georgian-Abkhaz confederation has formed among many experts due to the situation in Georgia. Of course, we must take into account different options for the development of events, although we don’t consider this state of affairs realistic. We still hope that this comes as a different format, a different integration, more of a Union State (with Russia and Belarus).”
What to Anticipate
The statements and steps of the Georgian Dream government raise suspicion that, in the near future, the government may promote the need to abandon EU and NATO integration in exchange for the restoration of territorial integrity. Groups/individuals close to Georgian Dream have already made moves which may be aimed at gauging public sentiment and preparing the public before a “decisive step” is taken by Ivanishvili/Georgian Dream.
The United Neutral Georgia public movement was launched on July 10. The movement, which will be transformed into a political party in a year, consists of individuals close to Georgian Dream. “The Georgian people should be given the opportunity to better perceive the reality which is related to the country’s foreign policy priorities,” the movement’s founding group said in a statement. Members of the movement do not believe in the future of the European Union, and believe that Georgia’s entry into the union, which may soon disintegrate, lacks rational justification.
In this context, it is interesting that Irakli Rukhadze, the owner of the pro-government Imedi TV channel, himself a US citizen, criticized the existance of the note about European integration aspirations in the constitution. During an interview on the Imedi Week program, recorded on July 11, he said: “Why is it written in the constitution? [Article 78 of the Constitution on NATO and EU integration]. It’s totally stupid. If you ask me, we shouldn’t have written it down.“ He also downplayed the importance that Georgian citizens attach to European integration. “There is a claim that 80 percent of the population of Georgia wants to join the European Union. That’s probably true, but … in the same NDI survey these numbers came from, when you talk about important issues, only 2 percent believe that … it’s on the list of important issues.” As such, according to Rukhadze, “issues such as poverty eradication, health care, education, employment, and territorial integrity are more important for the citizens of Georgia.”
Georgian society’s preparation for the “decisive step” is necessary ahead of the October 26 parliamentary elections. The leaders of Georgian Dream openly state that they will win the elections with a large margin, and will reenter Parliament with a constitutional majority. The new election motto of Georgian Dream – “Towards Europe, only with peace, dignity and prosperity” – was voiced on July 16, the day of the opening of the Georgian Dream Party’s new central office and the start of its election campaign. Georgian Dream considers the October 26 elections as a referendum between peace and war. According to Ivanishvili, only as a result of a peaceful and pragmatic policy can the cherished dream of all Georgians, the restoration of territorial integrity, be fulfilled. To achieve this, Georgian society has to make a “choice” between the restoration of territorial integrity and integration into the Euro-Atlantic structures.
If a constitutional majority is achieved, Ivanishvili’s next step will be a formal change of Georgia’s foreign policy vector, seeing the removal of the transitional provision in the Georgian Constitution adopted in 2017 – Article 78, according to which “constitutional bodies shall take all measures within the scope of their competences to ensure the full integration of Georgia into the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.”
The removal of Article 78 will formally end the process of changing Georgia’s foreign policy vector. With such a step, Ivanishvili will “sort out” his relations with Russia, ensure his personal security, and maintain power with the support of Russia. Either that, or it will ensure an openly pro-Russian government comes to power. With it comes his promise to and hope for Georgian society and Georgian Dream voters that his pragmatic policy will lead to the restoration of Georgia’s territorial integrity by 2030.
However, despite Ivanishvili’s promise, taking into account the politics of Georgian Dream and the current moods in Russia and the occupied regions, the restoration of territorial integrity by 2030 will most likely remain an unfulfilled mission, seeming instead more like another election “trick” of Ivanishvili (previous such election “tricks” count the “Gareji is Georgia” propaganda), the purpose of which is to “legitimize” the change of the foreign policy vector and ensure victory in the elections. The final result will be Georgia’s rejection of the European choice and the actual loss of sovereignty, turning Georgia into a satellite country of Russia.
