Author: Mariam Macharashvili
On October 1, 2024, the former Prime Minister of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, officially became the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), succeeding Jens Stoltenberg, who had held the position for nearly a decade. Stoltenberg took charge in 2014, during a rather difficult period, and navigated the alliance through many subsequent challenges. He played a crucial role in redefining NATO’s objectives, especially in response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, and was a strong advocate for the expansion of the alliance – welcoming four additional countries during his leadership. At the official ceremony in Brussels, in his speech, Mark Rutte called Stoltenberg’s tenure in office “exemplary” and noted that: “Today, NATO is bigger, NATO is stronger and is more united than ever; that is in large part because of your leadership.” In turn, Stoltenberg commended Rutte’s pragmatism and consensus-building skills, while noting that “you don’t compromise on our values and principles”.
NATO’s new, 14th, Secretary General has unsurprisingly been in the international spotlight, as this position is important not only for the internal functioning of the alliance and reaching consensus, but also for its strengthening and effective fight against security challenges. That is why, in our blog, we will address two important questions: 1) Who is Mark Rutte and what are his political achievements? and 2) What is Rutte’s strategic vision and what are the main challenges he will have to deal with as the new NATO Secretary General?
- “Teflon Mark” – Mark Rutte’s political achievements
Mark Rutte’s political career began when he joined the liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands, where he swiftly advanced through the ranks. He was known for his center-right views. As a member of the VVD, he supported free market principles in the economy, fiscal conservatism, and social liberalism. In 2010, Mark Rutte became the Prime Minister of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, and was the first liberal Prime Minister to be appointed in 92 years. From this point until 2023, he headed coalition governments and was the longest serving Prime Minister in the history of the Netherlands.
Rutte’s policies were marked by pragmatism, strong consensus-building abilities, and reforms aimed at enhancing economic stability and fostering innovation. He has the experience of dealing with various crises, among them economic, political, and those caused by the pandemic. Rutte has been hailed as the “survivor” of Dutch politics, and nicknamed “Teflon Mark” for his excellent ability to avoid political scandals. With his pragmatic approach, Rutte successfully formed and maintained four coalition governments amid political fragmentation. Yet, alongside the successful political and economic reforms, the rise in migration and the growing number of asylum seekers in the Netherlands posed a significant challenge for Rutte. The most recent coalition government, made up of four parties with differing views, collapsed primarily due to disagreements over the country’s immigration policy.
Mark Rutte has played an active role in international politics at both the global and regional levels, and he is a strong advocate for transatlantic cooperation and the enhancement of security. The shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 by Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine in 2014 marked a pivotal moment in Rutte’s premiership. Dutch citizens lost their lives in the plane crash, which reinforced Rutte’s conviction that no nation can confront today’s threats alone. This belief led him to advocate for a stronger and more unified Europe, which can be seen as a motivating factor in his decision to accept the role of NATO Secretary General. The United States and key European nations backed him due to his pragmatism and crisis management skills. His ability to forge consensus was evident in his success in securing support from the leaders of Turkey, Hungary, and Slovakia for his candidacy.
- Mark Rutte’s strategic vision and the main challenges he is facing
Upon taking the helm of NATO, Secretary General Rutte outlined three key priorities for his tenure: 1) maintaining NATO’s strength and effective defense capabilities; 2) supporting Ukraine and facilitating its integration into NATO; and 3) strengthening partnerships with various global actors. It is evident that Mark Rutte is leading NATO during a particularly critical and tense period, with significant global difficulties being faced. Notably, the revisionist actions of Russia, China’s growing ambitions, and internal democratic challenges within the alliance, including reduced military supplies, are major concerns. The alliance has recently undergone a transformation and established new regional plans that necessitate adequate resources for implementation. In our blog, we will analyze three major challenges:
The upcoming US elections: The U.S. elections scheduled for November 5, 2024, will pose a significant challenge for Mark Rutte, impacting the strength and unity of the NATO alliance for years to come. This concern is underscored by former President Donald Trump’s threats during his campaign, as he is known for his skepticism about the alliance, having indicated that, if re-elected, he will not defend NATO member states that do not meet their defense spending commitments. Additionally, Trump has claimed he can negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin “within 24 hours.” Mark Rutte’s perspective on the potential outcomes of the U.S. elections was articulated back in February at the Munich Conference, where he stated that Europe should cooperate with “whoever is on the dance floor.” Rutte is also known by the nickname “Trump Whisperer” due to his experience negotiating with Trump. In fact, he is credited with “saving” the 2018 NATO Summit through his discussions with Trump on defense spending, which ultimately led to a peaceful resolution.
Regardless of who wins the U.S. election, no candidate is as strong a proponent of Transatlanticism as current President Joe Biden. While U.S. involvement in current European events is anticipated to be greater under a Kamala Harris presidency than under to a Trump presidency, both candidates are likely to prioritize China, which could lead to a shift in U.S. attention away from Europe toward the Far East in the medium and long term. As Chatham House notes, if Trump were to be re-elected, depending on which foreign policy faction within the Republican Party gains his support, Rutte may have to collaborate with the U.S. as it focuses entirely on China, or completely reassess NATO and transatlantic security issues. In case of a Harris presidency, Rutte would need to support U.S. engagement in Europe, while also urging NATO allies to increase their defense spending. In both scenarios, the role of the new NATO Secretary General will be critical in maintaining and strengthening transatlantic unity.
The Russia-Ukraine war: Rutte assumed the position of Secretary General of the Alliance in tense circumstances, with Russia’s war in Ukraine having been ongoing for over two years. There are no guarantees that Putin will endorse any peace agreement, and it is evident that Russia will continue its aggressive policies not only in Ukraine, but also in other neighboring countries, putting Georgia and Moldova at particular risk. The countries to the east of the alliance are also vulnerable.
Mark Rutte is a strong supporter of Ukraine. During his tenure as Prime Minister, the Dutch government provided military aid to Ukraine amounting to €2.63 billion. “Ukraine must win this battle. For their security and ours,” Rutte stated. He also backed the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, and, in May 2024, the Netherlands made the unprecedented decision to allow Ukraine to use these aircraft against Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky described this decision as “historic.”
For Rutte, as Secretary General of NATO, maintaining support for Ukraine will be a significant test, particularly in light of the U.S. election results. If Trump is elected president for a second time, there is a risk that he will pressure Ukraine to make concessions to Russia. Conversely, if Harris becomes president, a divided Congress could complicate the approval of aid packages for Ukraine. To mitigate the impact of the U.S. elections, a new initiative has emerged within the alliance to assist Ukraine with security provisions and training, known as NATO Security Assistance and Training to Ukraine (NSATU). This initiative enables the Alliance to directly coordinate the supply of weapons, training programs, and the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Recently, Rutte stated that all NATO member states are committed to providing Ukraine with the necessary support to continue its fight against Russian aggression. Yet, therein arises a new obstacle: ensuring unity within the alliance regarding Ukraine. It will be the Secretary General’s responsibility to prioritize ongoing assistance to Ukraine on the NATO agenda.
Challenges within the alliance: In 2020, NATO members signed a new framework agreement known as the Concept for the Defense and Deterrence of the Euro-Atlantic Area, which laid the groundwork for developing a new alliance force model at the 2022 Madrid Summit, and for further agreements on new regional plans at the 2023 Vilnius Summit. These agreements are fundamental to NATO’s credibility in defense and deterrence, necessitating the mobilization of resources. According to experts, the main challenges lie on the eastern flank, where NATO currently possesses only 5% of air defense systems. A further significant challenge within the alliance is ensuring that member states allocate 2% of their GDP to defense; at present, only 23 out of 32 member states meet this criteria. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has become essential to spend not only the mandated 2%, but more, in support of NATO’s collective security objectives. The new Secretary General will need to coordinate these issues with member states and persuade them to increase defense spending in a structured and sustainable manner.
In addition to collaboration among member states, NATO’s partnerships with international allies such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Australia—who were also invited to the 2024 NATO Washington Summit—are crucial for ensuring security. It will be Mark Rutte’s responsibility to lead political dialogue with these partners to further strengthen the alliance.
Mark Rutte, an experienced politician known for his pragmatic views, consensus-building skills, and reforms focused on economic stability and innovation, has taken the position of NATO Secretary General during a challenging and tense time. His strategic vision centers on strengthening the alliance’s defense capabilities, supporting Ukraine, and fostering cooperation with international partners. Currently, he needs to address significant challenges facing the alliance, the most critical of which are the upcoming U.S. elections, the Russia-Ukraine war, and difficulties arising from the alliance’s internal transformation. Mark Rutte’s role will be vital not only in facilitating political dialogue and ensuring the alliance’s effective functioning, but also in demonstrating his efforts to persuade member states to increase defense spending, implement the new NATO defense and deterrence concept, and prioritize sustainable support for Ukraine.
