Author: Tekla Gabrichidze
Introduction
In April 2024, the United States and Japan introduced a resolution to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) seeking to prohibit the deployment of nuclear weapons in outer space. This resolution underscored the obligations of the 115 States Parties to the Outer Space Treaty, including the Permanent Members of the Security Council, to avoid placing any objects carrying nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Earth’s orbit. This move came in response to reports of Russia’s development of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon, although the White House reassured its audiences that the rumoured weapon did not pose an immediate threat. Russia vetoed the resolution, while China abstained. In May 2024, a new Russian-Chinese resolution was drafted, but was ultimately rejected by the Security Council. This marked the first instance of the UNSC addressing the issue of outer space security despite ongoing discussions that had spanned several decades.
The rejection of these resolutions and the resulting diplomatic tensions underscore the escalating competition for space dominance among the world’s leading powers. Space services are vital for global trade, disaster monitoring, and military operations – to dominate space means to dominate the land, sea, and air. As a result, U.S. key competitors such as China and Russia are developing capabilities to disrupt or destroy space systems critical to civilian infrastructure and military operations. This article examines the dynamics of this competition, focusing on the strategic space capabilities of China, Russia, and the United States, and the broader implications for global security.
The United States
The United States has maintained a significant technological edge in space, relying on satellite infrastructure for vital military operations, such as communication, navigation, and intelligence. The establishment of the U.S. Space Force in December 2019 marked a major milestone, playing a vital role in monitoring approximately 15 missile launches daily from various global hotspots, managing satellite deployments, and tracking space debris. The Space Force also oversees two newly launched robotic space planes, including the X-37B, which are capable of extended missions, orbit changes, and safe return to Earth. This underscores their potential as valuable assets in space operations. Notably, the U.S. Space Force became the sixth branch of the US military, emphasising the significance of space to US national security. The U.S.’s progress in space is further evidenced by the introduction of next-generation GPS satellites and advanced missile defence systems, like the Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) and the Next-Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared (Next-Gen OPIR) satellites.
U.S. officials always stress the importance of maintaining a strong presence in space to deter adversaries. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks stated that the United States is committed to deterrence only while acknowledging China and Russia’s aim to transform space into a domain for military engagement. Conversely, Chinese and Russian leaders accuse the United States of weaponising space.
Russia
Russia, as the successor of the Soviet Union, boasts a rich history of space exploration and military utilisation of space. Despite encountering obstacles to maintaining and upgrading its space technology due to international sanctions and broader societal and economic issues, Russia remains steadfast in prioritising its space capabilities. This commitment is evident in the operation of various satellites dedicated to remote sensing, communication, navigation, and early warning of ballistic missile launches. Notably, Russia has developed some of the most advanced remote sensing satellites globally, though it operates fewer systems than the U.S. and China. Additionally, Russia has developed a diverse range of capabilities to target satellites, including kinetic kill vehicles, electronic warfare systems, and ground-based lasers designed to disrupt or destroy satellite sensors.
In 2021, Russia conducted a controversial anti-satellite missile test, resulting in the destruction of a Soviet-era satellite, and generating a significant amount of hazardous space debris. In August 2022, the Russian satellite Cosmos 2543 released an additional object into orbit. The U.S. Space Force characterised this action as further evidence of “Russia’s ongoing efforts to develop and test space-based systems, consistent with the Kremlin’s stated military doctrine to deploy weapons that pose a threat to U.S. and allied space assets.” Russia’s persistent attempts to hack and disrupt satellite signals continue, with warnings issued that commercial satellite systems could be deemed legitimate targets for retaliation.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 further underscored its reliance on space assets for military operations. Shortly before the military assault, malware spread through part of the KA-SAT network, resulting in disruptions to the satellite internet modems of 50,000 European users, including Ukrainian military units. However, Ukrainian forces managed to restore connectivity using Starlink broadband satellites launched by SpaceX. Such involvement of the commercial industry in the militarization of space, as evidenced during Russia’s war in Ukraine, necessitates additional examination.
China
Over the past decade, China has rapidly expanded its satellite networks and launch capabilities, making it a significant player in space. In 2022, China achieved a new record for space launches, becoming the world’s second most active space launch provider after the United States. The completion of the BeiDou navigation system in 2020 was a major milestone, as it offers global positioning services supporting the precision-guided movements of the Chinese military.
China’s Shenlong (Divine Dragon) space plane, which was launched a mere two weeks prior to America’s X-37B, demonstrates China’s advancements in space technology. Both the U.S. and Chinese missions are shrouded in secrecy, yet both involve space planes that have the capability to conduct prolonged missions, transport and retrieve payloads, adjust their orbit, and return to Earth for refuelling, potentially making them potent weapons.
China invests significantly in space technology, with recent reports indicating that its spending surpasses NASA’s by $200 billion. This investment encompasses the advancement of both offensive and defensive space capabilities, such as satellite jamming and direct-energy weapons. Furthermore, China is strengthening its counter-space capabilities, which include anti-satellite missiles, electronic warfare systems, and ground-based lasers. The Chinese military consistently incorporates these technologies into its exercises, indicating its focus on space as a critical domain for potential future conflicts.
The Sino-Russian Space Partnership
The partnership in space between China and Russia began to develop in 2014, and expanded gradually over the following seven years. This progress culminated in the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) announcement in early March 2021, possibly in response to NASA’s Artemis program reveal. The initiative aims to land astronauts on the Moon by 2025, with a sustained human presence by 2028. This initiative builds upon the broader partnership and showcases the combined strengths of both nations: Russia’s extensive experience in human spaceflight and lunar missions, and China’s recent achievements in robotic lunar exploration, such as the Chang’e missions.
Another significant collaboration is the joint development of satellite navigation systems. Russia’s GLONASS and China’s BeiDou systems have been integrated to enhance global positioning services. This integration not only improves the accuracy and reliability of navigation for both countries, but also provides a strategic advantage by reducing dependence on the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS).
The collaboration between Russia and China in space projects dates back many years, but none have been as ambitious as the recent announcement, signifying a significant milestone in their partnership. In March 2024, Yuri Borisov, the head of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos, revealed plans to build an automated nuclear power plant on the Moon between 2033-2035. The objective of this Sino-Russian partnership is widely seen as a strategic move to counterbalance the US dominance and present a unified front against Western advancements in space.
Conclusion
The impact of technology on warfare has been significant throughout history, with each new technological advancement altering the dynamics of the battlefield. In today’s world, the loss of supremacy in space could swiftly result in a rapid defeat in any conflict. As humanity becomes increasingly reliant on space-based infrastructure, military strategy has pivoted toward swift, space-focused operations. This shift is why major global powers now consider space to be a crucial domain for potential military engagement. This development challenges traditional concepts of warfare and geographic boundaries, potentially transforming space into a front for deterrence strategies.
The strategic deployment of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons by China and Russia poses significant threats to global security. These threats include the disruption of essential communication and navigation services for military operations, commercial activities, and emergency response efforts. Furthermore, the destruction of satellites can lead to the creation of space debris that remains in orbit for decades, thereby increasing the risk of collisions with other satellites and spacecraft, including the International Space Station (ISS). In addition, demonstrations of ASAT capabilities can heighten military tensions and provoke retaliatory measures, ultimately escalating the risk of conflict. Satellites, essential for modern life, are now seen as potential military targets due to their dual-use nature. The distinction between commercial and military utilisation of space is diminishing, raising legal and legitimacy challenges. Therefore, the involvement of the commercial industry in the militarization of space, as evidenced during Russia’s war in Ukraine, necessitates additional examination.
In today’s increasingly crowded and competitive space environment, it is essential to understand the strategies and advancements of major spacefaring nations to maintain global security and ensure peaceful use of space. The future of space militarization depends on achieving a balance between technological progress, strategic considerations, and international efforts, to regulate and oversee space activities, preventing a potential arms race. By addressing the challenges posed by anti-satellite weapons and space debris, the international community can safeguard the benefits of space for future generations, maintaining space as a realm free from conflict and environmental damage.
