Author: Vasil Ghlonti
Introduction
On October 7, 2023, a terrorist attack carried out by the Palestinian organization Hamas against Israel triggered a sharp escalation in the Middle East. In response, Israel launched a special military operation in the Gaza Strip and its surrounding areas, aimed at the complete elimination of terrorists. These developments gradually extended beyond the scope of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as Iran’s destructive role became increasingly apparent. Against this background, on July 31, 2024, the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed during a bombing/explosion in the capital of Iran, Tehran. In this blog, our goal is to discuss the recent cooperation between the Iranian and Palestinian terrorist organizations, and to identify and analyze Iran’s role in Israeli-Palestinian relations.
Relations Between Iranian and Palestinian Terrorist Organizations
The Special Services of Iran and Palestinian terrorist organizations have a long history of cooperation; however, as per our observations, their relations have intensified in recent years. This is confirmed by the fact that Hamas has arepresentation office in Tehran, and that there are military camps of such organizations as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine stationed in Iran and Lebanon, in territories controlled by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps of the Iranian Armed Forces and the Hezbollah Iranian movement. According to available information, the Al-Quds special unit of the Guard Corps supervises the coordination of their joint activities, demonstrating full combat readiness to engage in hostilities against Israel. It is interesting that Iran provided USD 220 million in aid to Hamas in 2014-2020. According to the late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Iran gave USD 70 million to Hamas for the development of missile programs.
The US State Department reports that Iran has expanded the scope of its support to Palestinian organizations and has provided financial assistance of more than USD 100 million annually in recent years. Here, one interesting detail draws our attention: a joint intelligence center of the Special Services of Iran and Hezbollah is operating in Lebanon, and has been supplying operational intelligence information to the Palestinian Hamas, which works against Israel,since around 2021. Iran makes active use of the above-mentioned Islamic Jihad Organization, whose leaders, along with the Hamas leadership, are frequent visitors to Tehran. In addition to Hamas and the Islamic Jihad Organization, the Special Services of Iran have been actively working to recruit members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a leftist organization, utilizing its resources for their own objectives.
The failed attempt by Iran’s Special Services in 2023 to eliminate Israel’s National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, and other high-ranking officials, demonstrates their serious efforts against Israel.
In March 2024, the Israeli Special Services neutralized a terrorist-smuggler network managed by the Guard Corps intelligence and the Al-Quds forces. Their goal was to bring high-tech weapons into Samaria/Judea and hand them over to the terrorists. Interesting is the fact that such activity there is nothing new. According to reports from the Shin-Bet Israeli Counter-Intelligence Service, there was a significant increase in activity and funding of terrorists in the region in 2023. In response, the Israeli Special Services established a special joint commission to address this threat. It is quite possible that Iran hopes to worsen the dire domestic political situation in Israel at the hands of the Palestinians, seeing the Iranian Special Services using the Yemeni Ansarullah Movement to cut off the Red Sea and set up an economic blockade on Israel. The fact that Hamas and Ansarullah are supporting each other under the supervision of the Iranian Guard Corps indicates their joint participation in anti-Israeli actions.
The October 7 Terrorist Attack and the Murder of Hamas Leaders
The terrorist attack of October 7, 2023, undoubtedly aggravated the already difficult situation in the Middle East, in which Iran played the main destructive role. This is also confirmed by the fact that the Al-Quds forces of the Guard Corps, under the direct leadership of its commander, General Esmail Qaani, trained some 600 fighters of Hamas and Islamic Jihad a week before the terrorist attack occurred. Interestingly, the subversive style the Palestinians used in the terrorist attack was very similar to the handwriting of the Iranian Special Services. As a logical response to such a terrorist attack, Israel began targeting Hamas leaders, starting first with Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau and a founding commander of its military wing. Al-Arouri was killed by an Israeli strike in the neighborhood of Beirut, Lebanon, on January 2, 2024. It is likely that Saleh al-Arouri’s intelligence and military activities had attracted the attention of Israeli intelligence and military circles. A senior Hamas official living in Lebanon, he was considered a key figure connecting Hamas, the Guardian Corps, and Hezbollah, and his elimination was a significant loss to Hamas. Undoubtedly, Hamas suffered even more when Ismail Haniyeh, the organization’s leader and the chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau, was killed in an explosion at a guesthouse in Zafaraniyeh, a neighborhood in northern Tehran, on July 31, 2024. In our view, this incident exposed the complete inadequacy of Iran’s security and defense system.
According to an investigation by The New York Times, two months prior to the explosion, a saboteur planted an explosive device in the Nishat Hotel Complex controlled by the Guard Corps, located in an upscale neighborhood in northern Tehran, and then detonated it remotely. This showed that the Israeli Mossad had succeeded in recruiting members of the Guard Corps, and, with their help, was able to eliminate Ismail Haniyeh. While the Guards Corps dismissed the claim made by the US media outlet, it further damaged their already tarnished reputation. The Iranian Intelligence Service said the saboteurs had taken advantage of the local terrain and blown up Haniyeh’s location using a short-range missile with a 7kg warhead. According to The New York Times, in response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the Guard Corps Counterintelligence Agency has since arrested more than two dozen people, including senior intelligence officers, military officials and staff workers at the guesthouse under investigation.
Iran’s Special Services accused the US of working with Israel to kill Ismail Haniyeh, although the American side has denied these allegations. It is a well-known fact that the US has always held a firm position against a major war between Iran and Israel as it, as an ally, would thus be forced to go to war with Iran. This would necessitate the mobilization of all US military resources, for which the American political and military elite is not ready, especially against the backdrop of the whole country preparing for presidential elections. This notion was also confirmed in a statement made by the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, where he considered Iran’s attack on Israel inevitable, yet emphasized that for the US, increasing the scale of the Iran-Israel conflict, and the destabilization of the Middle East, were both completely unacceptable. At the same time, the Head of the US Central Command, General Michael Erik Kurilla, visited the Middle East region, signaling the US’s heightened concern.
Against this background, it can be assumed that the Iran-Israel conflict will escalate, and mutual airstrikes and missile attacks can be expected. That said, a major war seems unlikely in the near term, as the global political elite appears less inclined to such an outcome. At the same time, there is no guarantee that in the mid and long term the processes will not become more complex, leading to our having to witness a major war in the Middle East. Noteworthy is the fact that the Israeli government is preparing for the “worst case scenario” with its Iran attacks, and the Shin-Bet Israeli Internal Security Service has prepared a special secret bunker in Jerusalem ahead of such a possibility.
The Turkish media published remarkable information, suggesting the Turkish Special Services had warned and rescued Ismail Haniyeh twice in past years. They warned the Palestinian terrorist for a third time, but were unable to help him. It is interesting that in May 2024, the head of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT), İbrahim Kalın, met with Hamas leaders, including Ismail Haniyeh, and discussed the issue of Israel. Of course, Israel negatively perceived the relations between the Turkish Special Services and Palestinian terrorists, since Turkey is one of the most important geopolitical centers of the world, and the strengthening of terrorist organizations there is detrimental to Tel Aviv.
Another noteworthy detail: according to the world’s media, during the Israeli bombardment of the Khan Younis refugee camp in southern Gaza, on July 13, the Israeli Military Forces and Special Services killed Mohammed Deif, the commander of the Hamas military wing, the Al-Qasam Brigades. This suggests that the Israeli government aims to eliminate the Hamas leadership in its entirety.
Conclusion
In our view, the primary driver behind the increasing tension in the Middle East is the current Iranian regime, which played a huge role in organizing, preparing and financing the terrorist attack of October 7. This is confirmed by the fact that Iran has, in recent years, provided enormous financial and military support to Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian terrorist organizations. Israel’s counter-terrorism measures are coercive ones that the country uses to protect its civilian population. The complex political processes taking place in the Middle East suggest that conflict resolution in this, one of the key regions of the world, is unlikely in the near term. On the contrary, the political picture of the region is likely to become even darker and more problematic, and it is quite possible that terrorism will intensify to such an extent that it will expand beyond the Middle East region and once again become a global issue demanding the full attention of the international community. Against the backdrop of the Iranian regime successfully developing its nuclear/missile programs and actively supporting terrorist organizations, the establishment of stability and peace in the Middle East is facing significant threats.
Given this context, the stance of developed nations and the global community’s capacity to respond effectively and promptly to current and emerging challenges will be crucial for the well-being and stability of the world.
