Author: Vasil Ghlonti

 

Introduction

In recent years, relations between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese terrorist organization, have escalated. Amid ongoing complexities in Palestine, Hezbollah – trained and equipped by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – has targeted Israel and supported Hamas, alongside the Iranian Special Services. In retaliation, Mossad, the National Intelligence Agency of Israel, carried out a special operation against Hezbollah, destroying communication devices and equipment and causing serious losses on the Lebanese side. Later, Israeli airstrikes targeted the Hezbollah headquarters in Dahieh, a district in south Beirut, resulting in the death of Hezbollah leader Sheikh Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah.

The purpose of our blog is to discuss and analyze what caused the recent confrontation between Israel and the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah, the importance of the Palestinian factor, and the role of Iran in these processes.

The Role of Hezbollah and Iran’s Special Services in Training, Equipping and Financing Palestinian Terrorist Organizations

After the October 7, 2023, large-scale terrorist attack on Israel carried out by the Hamas terrorist organization, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the situation in the Middle East escalated. Based on our observations, the destructive role of the Iranian Special Services in the organization and execution of the terrorist attack is indisputable. For years, the Iranian Special Services, together with the Lebanese Hezbollah movement, has been conducting military/terrorist training at military bases and paramilitary refugee camps in Iran and Lebanon; arming, training and pushing members of these organizations to act against the State of Israel. It is noteworthy that in recent years, Hamas, with the assistance of Hezbollah and the Iranian Intelligence Agency, has been recruiting new terrorist fighters in Palestinian refugee camps operating in Lebanon.

Interestingly, Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps not only provided military training to Palestinian terrorists, but also supplied them with intelligence through a joint Hezbollah-IRGC intelligence center operating in Lebanon. These facts suggest that Hezbollah and the IRGC were actively involved in the Israeli-Hamas confrontation, and coordinated closely with Palestinian terrorists, and thus were likely among the main instigators of the conflict. Iran, by complicating the domestic political situation in Israel with the help of Palestinian terrorists, sought to divert attention to Israel’s internal issues, allowing it to act freely in the Middle East region and to strengthen the so-called Shiite Axis of Resistance and its position on the international stage.

 

Escalation of the Israeli-Hezbollah Conflict

Israel’s response involved shifting focus to Hezbollah, in parallel with the confrontation with Palestinian organizations. Notably, on January 2, 2024, the Israeli Special Services eliminated Saleh Al-Aruri, the deputy head of the Hamas political bureau and a key leader of the military wing of the organization Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades (IQB). This move likely stemmed from his being a link between Hamas and Hezbollah, serving as their military ally, one of the main financiers for Hamas’ weapons purchases, and an occasional supervisor of the recruitment process. The fact that such an odious senior official of Hamas lived and worked in Lebanon under the protection of the Iranian Special Services and Hezbollah once again points to the existing coordination between Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Hezbollah leader Sheikh Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah always sought to avoid a large-scale war with Israel, and, in response to Tel Aviv’s actions, periodically bombed Israeli territory from the south of Lebanon. Most likely, Nasrallah was well aware that a full-scale war with Israel would completely destroy Hezbollah, leading to other terrorist organizations filling the resulting power vacuum, and taking over its activities. According to our information, Hezbollah was engaged in the smuggling of oil, weapons and drugs, which brought enormous income to Nasrallah, who was always careful in his financial interests and refrained from crossing red lines in relation to Israel. Yet, it is our assessment that the October 7 terrorist attack and Hezbollah’s assistance to Hamas completely erased the red lines in Israeli-Hezbollah relations, and only a major conflict and further escalation of the situation could be expected between them.

This was confirmed by a widescale anti-terrorist special operation carried out by the Israeli Special Services on September 17-18, during which pagers (AR-924), walkie-talkies, radio stations (ICOM V82), scooters and cars equipped with the latest electronics blew up en-masse. The attack resulted in the deaths of several hundred people and injuries of varying severity to several thousand. It is thought that Hezbollah was planning to use them as part of their emergency communications system in the event of a conflict with Israel, a fact which caught the attention of Israeli intelligence. This led to the subversive operation carried out by Mossad, which planted explosives inside the equipment which Hezbollah purchased with the help of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Reportedly, Hezbollah ordered about three thousand AR-924 pagers from Taiwanese company Gold ApolloCo, the accumulators of which contained explosive substances equipped with a remote detonation mechanism. The Taiwanese company did not directly sell the equipment to Hezbollah and pointed the finger at BAC Consulting KFT, a distribution company for its products based in Budapest, Hungary. According to the latest information, the management of this Hungarian company, Director Cristiana Barsony-Arcidiacono, is no longer in contact and is unreachable. It is conceivable that she is afraid of retaliation by Hezbollah and the IRGC. Her mother told American media that she is currently under the protection of the Hungarian Special Services. It can be assumed that the distribution company was created by Mossad, and from the very beginning sought to sell its products to Hezbollah.

Another interesting detail is that the IRGC sometimes steps in to handle technical issues for Hezbollah, which lacks the means to test high-tech products, making them reliant on specialists of the Iranian Special Services. In this case too, the technical service of the IRGC is responsible for checking sensitive high-tech communication products. This highlights the mistake and unprofessionalism of the Iranian Special Services, in particular the IRGC, which first failed to conduct a thorough check of the Hungarian company BAC Consulting KFT, and then failed to conduct a technical inspection of the purchased products. It is interesting that, according to the latest information, the IRGC leadership, fearing explosions, temporarily banned its officers from using technical communication equipment, and instructed the relevant technical services to check all devices. In parallel, an investigation was opened to look into the links between Iranian military and security forces and Israel. It is conceivable that the counter-intelligence of the IRGC assumed the existence of an Israeli agency in Iranian structures.

On September 27, 2024, the Israeli Air Force bombed the headquarters of Hezbollah in the Dahieh district, south of Beirut, killing first the leader of the terrorist organization, Sheikh Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, and then his successor and closest relative, Hashem Safieddine. A high-ranking official of the IRGC, General Abbas Nilforushan, also died in the airstrike which killed Nasrallah. The start of the Israeli army’s military operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon following the anti-terrorist special operation suggests that Tel Aviv wants to completely dismantle Hezbollah, demilitarize southern Lebanon, and create a safe buffer zone. It was clear from the very beginning that Iran would not leave Israel’s actions unanswered, as evidenced by its airstrikes on Israeli territory.

Conclusion

It is our opinion that Israel’s special operation was a coercive measure, since, in recent years, the terrorist organization Hezbollah, created and backed by Iran, has become a major challenge for Israel. The fact that Lebanese Shiite terrorists, under the direct leadership of the IRGC, actively interfered in Israeli-Palestinian relations, represented a particular threat to Tel Aviv. As a result, on October 7, 2023, Israeli Intelligence Services failed to prevent an attack by Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, which had support from Iranian and Hezbollah intelligence. This led to heavy civilian casualties in Israel and damaged the reputation of the Israeli Special Services, military, and the current government. After eliminating most of the leadership of Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist organizations, Israel decided to completely neutralize Hezbollah. Special operations first against Hamas and then against Hezbollah allowed Israeli Intelligence Agencies to correct the mistake made on October 7. However, such a high-profile special operation risks triggering a major regional war with Iran, which in one form or another has already begun. This is not in the interests of Israel’s main ally, the United States, especially in the run up to the American presidential elections The future is uncertain, but it is clear that the Middle East will not return to its pre-October 7, 2023 state: tensions in the region are only expected to rise further