Author: Nino Chanadiri
In recent months, Europe has witnessed a surge of anti-government protests in countries like Slovakia, Serbia and Georgia. Hundreds of thousands have taken to the streets of Bratislava, Belgrade and Tbilisi, voicing their political demands. While the drivers behind the protests are unique to each country, it is crucial to examine the similarities and differences in these movements, and to attempt to understand them within a broader context, beyond the daily media coverage. This blog provides a summary of each case, followed by an analysis of the commonalities and distinctions, all within the framework of the wider geopolitical landscape.
The Case of Georgia
The protests in Tbilisi erupted shortly after the parliamentary elections in October 2024, when the credibility of the elections came into question due to numerous violations in the process, including the fundamental issue of anonymous voting. These concerns were raised by both local and international organizations involved in monitoring the elections. Protesters and Georgia’s international partners demand new elections under international supervision. However, the protests escalated significantly after November 28, when Irakli Kobakhidze, the leader of the de facto ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party, announced that the party would not engage in negotiations with the EU until 2028, a move assessed as a blow to the already deteriorated Georgian-EU relations, prompting hundreds of thousands to take to the streets in protest at GD’s decision. The protests on November 28 and the following days were met with violent crackdowns, leaving dozens of civilians injured. Since then, every evening, citizens have gathered in the streets of Tbilisi and other cities throughout the country to protest the GD regime and to demand new elections and the release of those detained during the protests. The movement has garnered support from nearly every sector of society, including art and business.
GD’s reaction to the events was unprecedentedly violent. The police brutality during the crackdowns and against those detained, the majority of whom are young people, has been documented by authoritative organizations, who have recorded detained individuals describing it as treatment that equals torture Despite the international sanctions against those responsible for the brutalities against the protesters, including the Minister of Internal Affairs, Vakhtang Gomelauri, who was placed by the US on the “Magnitsky list,” and financial sanctions against the oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, persecution against protesters continues. Anti-Western propaganda and propaganda against the protesters has also deepened, with GD leaders repeatedly describing the protests as having been “organized by radicals” under largely mythical foreign influences.
The Case of Slovakia
Slovakia also experienced massive protests against their prime minister, Robert Fico, and his government. The protest broke out in December, following a meeting Fico had with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Fico is believed to be a pro-Russian left wing leader, one who has openly expressed his desire to halt support to Ukraine. The Slovakian demonstrations are ongoing, seeing crowds of tens of thousands gathering in Bratislava and in other towns and cities countrywide, claiming that Slovakia’s place is in the EU, and that it has had “enough of Fico.” The character of the protests is clearly pro-European, against the country’s pro-Russian foreign policy trends.
Even though the government has not attempted to violently suppress the protests, the propaganda machine has been working to show the process as radical- blaming opposition parties for attempting to overthrow the government. Fico has voiced various conspiracy theories about foreign involvement in the organization of the protests, including a claim regarding the involvement of the “Georgian Legion” fighting in Ukraine. The allegations have been denied. Fico has announced administrative actions will be taken to prevent unwanted developments. He has also been personally involved in publicly criticizing young protesters and blaming opposition media for being under a foreign influence because of its support of the protests.
The Case of Serbia
The Serbian anti-government protests started in November, when, in Novi Sad, a train station roof collapsed, killing 15 people. The protests were led by students, who believe the tragic incident to have come as a result of President Aleksandar Vucic’s corruption and nepotism. Reconstruction works were carried out twice on the train station where the tragedy occurred, with Chinese state companies involved in the reconstruction deal. The protests against the government took on a weekly character from November, and spread to Belgrade, as well as other cities and towns, seeing students blocking the roads. The protest is widespread, and is backed by numerous unions, including teachers’ unions and businesses. On January 24, theaters announced they would not show plays on protest days.
Vucic has responded to the process with counter demonstrations and propaganda. Even though the demand is for the government to accept accountability for its corruptive practices and to bring justice, Vucic has accused the demonstrators of being influenced by foreign powers, claiming they aim to overthrow the government and create chaos. It is also noteworthy that there have been instances where drivers attempted to drive through the protesters, resulting in several injuries. Vucic has been criticized for allegedly encouraging such violence against the protesters. The protests in Serbia have already led to a significant governmental change, with Prime Minister Milos Vucevic resigning. He stated that his decision was made to avoid complicating the situation. If a new government is not formed, Serbia will face snap parliamentary elections.
Similarities and Differences in the Protests and Governmental Responses
The protests in Georgia, Slovakia and Serbia share both similarities and differences. In all three countries, the protests extend beyond the capitals, having spread to numerous cities and towns. In Slovakia, various groups have organized protests in different locations, a pattern also seen in Georgia, further indicating the decentralized nature of the movements. Moreover, the involvement of diverse societal groups has been evident in the protests. While youth have played an important role, especially in Serbia and Georgia, unions, organizations and business have also actively participated, with strikes occurring in both Serbia and Georgia. This demonstrates that the protests have a broad social base, and are not driven by a “small radical group” – a narrative that all three governments have attempted to promote.
Similarities can be seen in the main focus of the protests in Slovakia and Georgia, as both are driven by opposition to their countries’ shift away from the European path. Yet the Serbian protest focuses more on the people seeking internal political accountability from the ruling power. The protests in Tbilisi have taken a more dramatic turn due to the GD’s extremely violent response, including a daily crack-down on demonstrations and the detaining and beating of citizens. To date, neither Fico nor Vucic have adopted openly violent practices against demonstrators, however, they have sought to spread conspiracy theories about foreign powers trying to overthrow the government, also seen from GD in Georgia – here spotlighting a mythical global power’s desiring to drag the country into chaos. In all three cases, the regimes have claimed the protesters are local agents of foreign powers and are serving foreign interests.
It is important to note that all three ruling powers have expressed pro-Russian positions through both words and actions. The protests in Slovakia are linked to Fico’s close ties with Putin, while Vucic is also known for his positive stance towards Putin and his opposition to sanctions on Russia. Although GD founder Bidzina Ivanishvili does not publicly speak about his relationship with Russian leadership, it is widely believed that he has been trying to bring Georgia back into Russia’s sphere of influence, while maintaining business interests in Russia.
While the protests in Serbia are more focused on domestic politics, and those in Georgia and Slovakia clearly have an international dimension, all three movements represent a challenge to pro-Russian powers, posing a threat to Russian influence in these countries. As a result, the situation is being closely monitored from Moscow. Russian political figures have previously implied, when discussing the Georgian case, that Russia is “ready to help,” giving examples of those regimes who have received Russian support when they needed it. Thus, it is expected that Russia will involve itself in these processes through various hybrid means, be it informational influences or other methods, so as to strengthen friendly regimes.
Conclusion
The three cases of anti-government protests that Europe is experiencing reveal both similarities and differences. While the protests are not centralized, and involve a wide range of societal groups, there are still differences in their areas of focus. The Georgian and Slovakian protests are more oriented to the country’s European path, in contrast to their governments’ Russian style and undemocratic moves, while the Serbian protest focuses on domestic politics more than international, seeing citizens demanding justice and accountability from the government. Despite these differences, all three protests can be seen as a challenge to Russian influence, given the regimes’ friendly stance towards Russia, which is likely to cause increased support from Russia to the regimes. A common response from the governments has been the use of propaganda, depicting the protests as orchestrated by foreign powers, often accompanied by conspiracy theories claiming these powers aim to overthrow the ruling parties. However, the harshest reaction has been in Georgia, where police brutality, an example of the GD regime’s hard power, triggered a strong international response, including sanctions, that are expected to impact the regime, alongside the ongoing protests.
