Author: Mamuka Kirkitadze

 

As Georgia nears its highly anticipated parliamentary elections on October 26, 2024, a growing narrative, spearheaded by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), claims that the U.S. is staging a destabilisation campaign to unseat the ruling Georgian Dream party. These allegations are part of a broader disinformation campaign designed to portray Georgia’s Western allies, particularly the U.S., as external actors manipulating the country’s internal political landscape. Russia’s SVR is orchestrating this effort to undermine trust in Western institutions, while discrediting Georgia’s upcoming elections. The goal is clear: to ensure Georgia remains firmly within Moscow’s sphere of influence.

The significance of these accusations goes far beyond political rhetoric, touching on key geopolitical interests in the Caucasus region. Russia, long interested in maintaining influence over Georgia, views the country’s Western orientation as a threat to its strategic depth. Moscow aims to erode public confidence in Western institutions and destabilise Georgia’s election landscape. This blog aims to explore the extent of these disinformation efforts and the potential implications for Georgia’s future as a sovereign, Western-aligned state.

The Disinformation Campaign: A Timeline

The SVR’s narrative about “U.S. interference” in Georgia’s elections has evolved over the past few months, focusing on themes meant to discredit the Western allies, as well as the opposition, and to undermine confidence in the electoral process.

  1. July 9, 2024: The “Colour Revolution” Playbook
    The SVR Press Bureau first accused the Biden administration of planning a comprehensive propaganda campaign to discredit the Georgian Dream party. According to the official letter, Washington had prepared a “Hollywood-style” plot to blame Russia for Georgia’s internal challenges. A key element of this alleged plan involves Georgia’s president, Salome Zurabishvili, who is expected to give a critical interview to an American media outlet, denouncing the Georgian government for slowing down the country’s European Union accession process and positioning too closely with Moscow. This narrative is intended to spark fears that the U.S. is staging a “colour revolution,” a term often used by Moscow to describe popular uprisings against regimes aligned with Russia. The SVR seeks to frame Georgia’s political turmoil as the result of foreign interference, casting any anti-government protests as foreign-engineered rather than genuine expressions of dissatisfaction.
  2. August 26, 2024: Preparing for Civil Unrest
    In August, the SVR intensified its claims, shifting its focus to the fragmented state of Georgia’s opposition parties. The SVR alleged that despite U.S. efforts, the opposition “remains weak and divided,” potentially allowing the Georgian Dream party to win decisively. Such a victory, the SVR claimed, would be unacceptable to Washington, as it would enable Georgian Dream to continue its “sovereign course” without Western interference. It further suggested that the U.S. was preparing for large-scale post-election protests, with alleged American “curators” supposedly directing opposition groups and pro-Western NGOs to gather evidence of electoral fraud. These protests, the SVR claimed, were intended to discredit the election results and provoke clashes with law enforcement, drawing parallels to the 2014 Maidan protests in Ukraine, which Russia also blamed on Western interference.
  3. On August 27, 2024: Amplifying the Narrative
    Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Chief Sergey Naryshkin reinforced these accusations, claiming that Russia aims to prevent a “colour revolution” in Georgia. In an interview with Russian state-controlled media TASS, Naryshkin stated, “The SVR made public the information that [we] have obtained and are obtaining about the hostile activities not only of Western intelligence services, but also of state bodies such as the U.S. State Department. We are doing this to help prevent attempts to carry out a colour revolution in Georgia.”
  4. September 11, 2024: Involving the OSCE
    The latest twist in the narrative accused the U.S. of using the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) as an accomplice in its alleged plot to destabilise Georgia. According to the SVR, the OSCE ODIHR is preparing to release a report stating that Georgia lacks the conditions for free and fair elections just weeks before the voting is set to take place. This, the SVR claims, will give the opposition a pretext to challenge the legitimacy of the election results, sparking mass protests aimed at toppling the government. By targeting the OSCE, a respected international election monitor, the SVR seeks to discredit its criticism of the election process, portraying the organisation not as a neutral observer, but as a tool of U.S. foreign policy.

Russia’s disinformation campaign extends beyond traditional media channels and into the cyber realm. According to Meta’s Adversarial Threat Report, a coordinated inauthentic behaviour campaign, linked to Russian actors, has been actively promoting the Georgian Dream party, while discrediting protests against the controversial Foreign Agents Law. This network of fake accounts and bots amplifies state-sponsored content, blurring the distinction between organic political discourse and strategically manipulated narratives. By weaponising social media platforms, Russia’s digital interference not only distorts public perception, but also deepens political divisions, making it harder to distinguish genuine public opinion from foreign-driven disinformation. Russia’s use of these digital tools—seamlessly blending online and offline tactics—highlights the sophistication of its efforts to influence the 2024 elections.

Implications for Georgia’s Elections

These disinformation narratives are designed to achieve several strategic objectives that will significantly affect Georgia’s political stability in the coming months.

  1. Undermining Trust in the Election Process: The SVR seeks to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the electoral process through repeated claims that the U.S. is manipulating the elections. If citizens begin to believe that the election is rigged, either by Western powers or their own government, it could lead to decreased voter turnout, increased polarisation, and potentially violent clashes.
  2. Preemptive Justification for Post-Election Protests: The SVR’s accusations serve as a preemptive explanation for any post-election unrest. If protests emerge after the election, especially following a potential Georgian Dream victory, the Russian narrative will blame U.S. meddling, framing the protests as foreign-orchestrated rather than organic. This could also give the Georgian government a rationale for cracking down on demonstrations, portraying them as foreign-backed coups rather than legitimate expressions of democratic dissent.
  3. Tarnishing Georgia’s Relationship with Western Allies: By implicating international organisations like the OSCE, the SVR aims to strain Georgia’s relationships with its Western allies. If the government or the public begins to see these institutions as complicit in “U.S. interference,” it could weaken Georgia’s international standing and further impede the already fragile progress it has made towards Western integration, a key goal for many in the country.

Conclusion

Russia’s disinformation campaign surrounding the 2024 Georgian elections represents more than just an attempt to influence public opinion: it poses a direct challenge to Georgia’s political stability and its alignment with Western allies. By undermining trust in the electoral process, the SVR aims to weaken the relationship between Tbilisi and its Western partners, while preemptively delegitimizing the election outcome to justify potential unrest. This strategy is designed to ensure Georgia remains within Russia’s geopolitical sphere of influence.

As Georgia faces this pivotal electoral moment, the disinformation campaign serves as a critical test of the country’s democratic resilience and its commitment to European integration. The international community’s proactive response to these challenges will be crucial in safeguarding not only the integrity of the upcoming elections, but also the future of Georgia as a sovereign, Western-aligned state. The stakes are high, as the outcome of these disinformation efforts could profoundly shape Georgia’s political trajectory, determining its democratic development and its place within the broader Euro-Atlantic community.