Author: Mariam Macharashvili
Moldova, under the leadership of the pro-Western president Maia Sandu, has taken important steps towards joining the European Union. Last year, the European Council granted Moldova candidate status, and negotiations for joining the EU were officially opened on June 25, 2024. In addition, this year, a Security and Defense Partnership agreement was signed between Moldova and the EU. According to the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Joseph Borrell,Moldova was the first country to sign such an partnership agreement with the EU. Borrell also mentioned plans to sign similar agreements with other “selected partners”, making it an opportunity for the EU to create a secure and resilient space, hand-in-hand with the co-signees.
This partnership includes a wide spectrum of cooperation, among which is border protection, cyber security, combating hybrid threats, joint military exercises, thematic trainings, capacity building, and Moldova’s involvement in EU Collective Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) missions. The aim of the partnership is to solve common security challenges and increase Moldova’s resilience, and help to establish a structured framework of cooperation with the EU. In addition, this year, Moldova signed a bilateral security agreement with France, a member state of the EU. Accordingly, in our blog, we will discuss the possible reasons that led Moldova to seek to get closer to the EU in security and defense.
The primary reason for the increase in Moldova’s security cooperation with the EU is the threats coming from Russia, which have recently appeared in three directions: 1) Russia’s attempt to destabilize Moldova; 2) Threats, and 3) Airspace violation:
1) Since its gaining independence, Russia and Russian influences have posed a significant threat to Moldova, especially in Moscow-controlled Transnistria, where Russian troops have been stationed since the 1990s, and in Gagauzia, a region with pro-Russian sentiments. Recently, especially following on from the rapprochement with the EU, the war in Ukraine, and Moldova’s severe condemnation of Russian aggression, relations with Russia have deteriorated. Cases of Kremlin interference in political processes, manipulation, disinformation and enhanced support for pro-Russian parties have increased. In February 2023, President Maia Sandu accused Russia of preparing a coup against the Moldovan government. In March 2024, the leader of Gagauzia met with Vladimir Putin and asked for his support to protect the region “from the illegal actions of the Moldovan authorities, who are taking revenge on us for our civil positions and our national interests.” Transnistria also appealed to Russia to protect it from the “pressure” of Chisinau. Such accusations against the Moldovan authorities are unreasonable and are clearly being manipulated by Russia. In addition, Russia has stepped up its support for Ilan Shor, a Moldovan oligarch who is sentenced to 15 years imprisonment in absentia due his involvement in a 2014 bank theft. Shor is believed to be the Kremlin’s main man in Moldova, organizing anti-government protests and fighting against the pro-Western team. The only purpose of such actions is Russia attempting to destabilize Moldova.
2) Threats and warnings from Russia have increased. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Brussels had offered Moldova the same ultimatum as Ukraine, which he called “either us or Russia.” He said Moscow would “protect” the ethnic Russian population in Moldova, and that Chisinau was “taking the same risks” as Ukraine. Further, Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, compared Maia Sandu and her policies to the Nazi regimeand Ukrainian President Zelensky, which indirectly read as a warning that Moldova will suffer the same fate as Ukraine.
3) Facts of the violation of Moldova’s airspace have been recorded. In an interview with Politico, Moldovan Foreign Minister Popsoi noted that several Russian missiles launched from the Black Sea were spotted flying through the country’s airspace in the direction of Ukrainian targets.
Close cooperation with the West is the only way for Moldova to avoid the potential threats coming from Russia. This was the reason why President Sandu signed a defense cooperation agreement with the EU and France, looking to protect Moldova’s independence from potential Russian aggression. Moldova also decided to suspend its participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe which sets limits on military equipment. This decision means that the government is realistically assessing the expected threats and trying to maximize its defense capabilities.
In addition to the reasons listed above, the Defense and Security Partnership Agreement with the EU is in line with Moldova’s renewed national security goals and, to some extent, derives from them. In December 2023, the Moldovan parliament approved a new National Security Strategy, which is significantly different from the previous document. Namely: 1) The document officially names Russia as the country’s primary threat: “Russia and its proxies in Moldova represent the most dangerous and permanent source of threat, which, if not confronted, can have a serious impact on our country’s statehood, democracy and prosperity.” By comparison, Moldova’s previous National Security Strategy of 2011 listed Russia as a strategic partner, after the EU, the US and Romania. Accordingly, the presence of such an entry in the national security strategy demonstrates that there has been a thorough rethinking of the threats, risks and ways of dealing with them in Moldova. As the press secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Moldova, Igor Zaharov, said: “Moldova is moving away from Moscow’s sphere of influence”; 2) The current government in Chisinau considers Moldova’s security and even its survival to be inseparablefrom the security of Ukraine. The security strategy states: “The hypothetical disappearance of an independent Ukraine would pose a serious threat to the existence and survival of Moldova as an independent and democratic state,” “independent Ukraine, as a full-fledged member of the European family, is the main component of Moldova’s national security.” Accordingly, Moldova’s support for Ukraine is an unwavering and firm decision, a fact which is clearly unacceptable to Russia. The same is confirmed by the fact that Maria Zakharova condemned the document and called it “Russophobic”; 3) Joining the European Union is considered the top priority of the country, and expanded cooperation with partners and the EU is the first way for Moldova to overcome transnational challenges; 4) As some sources point out, the new security strategy somewhat calls into question the commitment to “permanent neutrality” and may be revised in the future.
In addition to the achievements made on the path to joining the EU, the agreement on security and defense partnership between Moldova and the EU signed this year opened a new phase in their relationship. The agreement was made with France, a member state of the EU. It is essential now that Moldova develop its defense capabilities by expanding cooperation with allies in a variety of sectors, so as to benefit both sides. The fundamental reason why Moldova’s pro-Western government has decided to work closely with the EU on security issues is the threat posed by Russia, specifically disinformation, destabilization attempts in Transnistria and Gagauzia, threats, and airspace violations. Furthermore, by adopting a new National Security Strategy, Moldova reassessed the risks and challenges, officially named Russia as the primary threat, and declared joining the EU as its main national goal. According to the new security document, partnership with the West is the only way to deal with those challenges.
